July 31, 2025
This paper reviews the strengths and weaknesses of using valuation-based metrics like CAPE and CAEY to estimate long-run equity market returns. While these models remain the most robust objective tools available, their predictive power is nuanced and often overstated.
Read moreJuly 31, 2025
While liquidation taxes may seem like a drawback for TA LS strategies, this analysis shows they typically do not erase the significant tax and performance benefits accumulated over time. Thoughtful unwind planning can further enhance after-tax outcomes.
Read moreJuly 31, 2025
In a portfolio whose investment horizon is forever, do diversifying investments add any value? In this short paper, we illustrate the surprising power of diversification for ultra-long-term investors.
Read moreAdrian Kellen Perspectives
June 5, 2025
This post revisits and refutes a long-standing argument against market timing—that missing just a few of the market’s best days can devastate returns—by demonstrating its logical flaws and statistical irrelevance. Using both historical and out-of-sample data, it shows that the risks and rewards of market timing are more symmetric than commonly portrayed.
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Strategies
Optima Global is at the nexus of economics, behavioral finance, data, and technology. Our evolution has been a continuous exploration of what drives markets and how it can be applied to client portfolios.
Investors should conduct their own analysis and consult with professional advisors prior to making any investment decisions. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment process is subject to change.
